Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
Riding on strong June-quarter numbers and positive brokerage outlook, the stock of retail major Trent hit a fresh all-time high on Monday (August 14). The stock has gained 14 per cent in five trading sessions. Continuing the trend of strong revenue growth over the last few quarters, the company posted 53.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in top line to Rs 2,536 crore in the June quarter (first quarter of financial year 2023-24 or Q1FY24).
Following a strong performance in the 2022-23 January-March quarter, publicly listed paint industry giants displayed a mixed performance in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. While Berger Paints India outperformed its peers and reported results in line with expectations, market leader Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac Paints fell slightly short of expectations.
There has been a sharp recovery in the headline corporate earnings in the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1FY24), after a dismal showing by early bird companies. The combined net profit of the 983 listed companies that have declared their quarterly results, so far, was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year to record a high of Rs 2.68 trillion in the first quarter, but growth in earnings remained lopsided because most of the incremental gains came from a handful of companies. Moreover, the quarterly numbers showed a continued slowdown in revenue growth.
The stocks of Mumbai-based real estate companies have been hitting lifetime highs on expectations that launches, steady demand, and price increases in the largest real estate market in the country would boost their financials. Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty hit their all-time highs last week, while Godrej Properties came close to its 52-week high last month before witnessing a sharp correction.
The stock of the country's largest listed oral care company -- Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd is up 18 per cent over the past month. The gains were led by better than expected June quarter (Q1) performance of the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and growth revival expectations of the oral care category. The company's volume growth is pegged at 5-8 per cent in Q1FY24. This is the second consecutive quarter of volume growth.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
The changes in the domestic and global economy following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic are altering the corporate profit league table in India. Reliance Industries (RIL), which topped the India Inc profit chart for more than a decade, lost out to State Bank of India (SBI) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1). India's biggest lender reported a consolidated net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of Rs 66,860 crore during the trailing 12-month (TTM) ended in June this year, ahead of RIL's TTM adjusted net profit of Rs 64,758 crore in the quarter.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
Equity valuations are once again on the rise, after they cooled down in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The BSE Sensex trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has risen to a 17-month high of nearly 25x, from 23.7x at the end of December 2022 and 21.6x at the end of June 2022. Similarly, the index closed on Friday with a trailing price-to-book (P/B) value ratio of 3.6x, up from 3.4x at the end of December 2022; it is the highest since December 2021.
The Q1FY24 earnings season has started on a dismal note for corporate India. The early-bird companies' revenue growth has been at a 10-quarter low, while the combined earnings of non-BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance) companies seem to have hit the ceiling. The numbers suggest corporate India is entirely dependent on BFSI companies and the IT services sector to drive growth in revenue and profit while other sectors are showing signs of stagnation.
Stocks of the country's bigger tile and ceramic makers were major gainers over the past week. The leaders in this space -- Kajaria Ceramics and Cera Sanitaryware -- were up 7 per cent each. In the past three months, Kajaria Ceramics and Somany Ceramics were up 29-32 per cent, while Cera Sanitaryware gained 22 per cent.
The Nifty IT Index, the gauge for the performance of information technology (IT) stocks, was the worst performer on the stock exchanges on July 29, a day after Infosys posted lower-than-expected earnings growth for the June quarter and sharply cut its revenue growth guidance for 2023-24 (FY24). The IT index was down 4.1 per cent, its biggest one-day fall in three months. The decline was led by Infosys, with its shares plunging nearly 8 per cent, followed by HCLTech (-3.2 per cent), Wipro (-3.0 per cent), and TCS (-2.7 per cent).
The stock of LTIMindtree finished at Rs 5,001 a piece on Monday, which means it is down about 5 per cent from its all-time high as its June quarter results for the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) missed estimates. A cautious note by the management, coupled with the fact that it will miss its double digit revenue growth target for FY24 weighed on the stock price. The company delivered revenues of just over a billion dollars in the quarter with constant currency growth of 0.1 per cent.
Except for Westlife Foodworld (Westlife), a weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter performance and a muted near-term outlook led to a downward revision of earnings estimates for quick-service restaurant (QSR) players. Brokerages have slashed estimates by as much as 10 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25). The downward revisions have weighed on the performance of listed players, who have underperformed the market with low single-digit returns over the past month.
Stocks of alcoholic beverage makers have corrected over the last few trading sessions on worries that taxes, competition and costs will hurt sales and profitability. The recent trigger for the decline is Karnataka, which accounts for 15 per cent of overall liquor consumption, increasing duties. The state increased by 20 per cent the additional excise duty on Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) on all slabs.
The Street shrugged off a muted first quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24) and a cautious near-term outlook by India's largest information technology (IT) services company, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The stock was the top Nifty50 and Sensex gainer on Thursday, rising 2.5 per cent, as investors took comfort from a robust order book and an encouraging pipeline. Like its larger peer, HCL Technologies' (HCL Tech), too fell short of the Street's expectations on the revenue and margin fronts given cuts in discretionary expenditure.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
Better than expected performance in June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) and a robust outlook led to 1.2 per cent gain in Titan Company stock on Friday (July 7). The firm reported 20 per cent growth in revenues, aided by double-digit rise in its major consumer segments. Jewellery, its largest segment, accounting for about 90 per cent of its sales, stood out with a growth of 21 per cent over the year ago quarter.
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